Illustrated Physics
physics, drawn
Concept

Predictability — where it appears

How far ahead a system's future can be computed from imperfect knowledge of its present, which for a chaotic system grows only as the logarithm of the precision. What survives the loss of it is the statistics — long-run averages over a trajectory converge, and do not depend on where the trajectory started.

Named by 2 essays across one field — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Indistinguishable for 10.2 seconds, then not. The path of the lower bob for two double pendulums released 1e-8° apart, over 11 seconds, with the arms drawn at the final instant. The two traces lie on top of each other for the first 10.2 seconds — the point at which they are two pixels apart on this canvas — and after that they have nothing to do with one another. Neither is more correct: both are exact solutions of the same equations, differing only in a release angle that no apparatus could set apart. The separation is growing at 2.05 per second the whole time, including during the stretch where the picture shows one curve.

The error that doubles on a schedule

Two double pendulums released a hundred-millionth of a degree apart follow one curve for ten seconds and then have nothing to do with each other. The separation grows exponentially the whole time, including while the picture shows a single trace — which turns unpredictability into a rate, and makes the length of a forecast the logarithm of the precision rather than anything proportional to it.

mechanics · Chaos The set an orbit that never repeats settles onto. 24,000 successive positions of one orbit of the map x' = 1 − 1.4x² + y, y' = 0.3x, after five hundred steps of transient have been discarded. Nearby points separate at e^0.4188 per step, so the orbit is unpredictable in the way the rung below measures; and every one of the 24,000 points lies inside a box 2.558 by 0.767, a diagonal of 2.670, so it is going nowhere. Those two statements are not compatible with a smooth stretching: something has to bring the separated points back, and the bringing back is the visible fold at the left-hand end. The curve is not a curve. Every strand of it is a bundle of strands at any magnification, which is what an area contraction of 0.3 per step leaves behind when the stretching along the other direction is e^0.419. The 24,000 points paint 7,352 distinct marks at the resolution this is drawn at, which is itself a measurement of how little of the plane the set occupies.

The fold that has to be there

Two trajectories that separate exponentially, in a region they can never leave, are being asked to do two incompatible things. The resolution is that the motion is folded back on itself over and over, and the object that survives infinitely many foldings is neither a curve nor a patch of surface — it has a dimension between the two, and the number can be measured two entirely different ways.

mechanics · Chaos

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

ChaosDeterminismLyapunov exponentAttractorBox countingDissipationExponential sensitivityFractal dimensionKaplan yorkeNonlinearityNormal modesNumerical integration

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